HIDRA3: A Robust Deep-Learning Model for Multi-Point Sea-Surface Height Forecasting

Accurate sea surface height (SSH) forecasting is crucial for predicting coastal flooding and protecting communities. Recently, state-of-the-art physics-based numerical models have been outperformed by machine learning models, which rely on atmospheric forecasts and the immediate past measurements obtained from the prediction location. The reliance on past measurements brings several drawbacks. While the atmospheric training data is abundantly available, some locations have only a short history of SSH measurement, which limits the training quality. Furthermore, predictions cannot be made in cases of sensor failure even at locations with abundant past training data. To address these issues, we introduce a new deep learning method HIDRA3, that jointly predicts SSH at multiple locations. This allows improved training even in the presence of data scarcity at some locations and enables making predictions at locations with failed sensors. HIDRA3 surpasses the state-of-the-art model HIDRA2 and the numerical model NEMO, on average obtaining a 5.0% lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and an 11.3% lower MAE on extreme sea surface heights.